Is Real Estate About to be Repriced towards it's utility value?
Real Estate is about to be repriced towards it's utility value in my opinion. I think it starts in places like Florida. Not only has zero interest rate policy artificially inflated home prices, but also subsidized home owners insurance has done the same. Double whammy. So how much is real estate worth in hurricane riddled Florida? Home owners insurance has apparently gone up there 103% over the past three years. This alone will reprice real estate there. Anyway, the same is happening elsewhere with fires, tornado's, flooding etc. Why is this a big deal? Because people are going to find out that storing the majority of one's net worth in a house is not wise, as it's not a good long term store of value going forward. I say going forward because over the past 40 plus years of monetary debasement, homes have basically kept up with inflation. The problem is things change. Demographics are falling off of a cliff right now. Oregon would have had population decline had it not been for some transplants into Oregon last year. Think about those implications on something like the housing market. More people dying than being born in Oregon. Sure we're indiscriminately importing more people into the US right now by the millions, but are they going to be jumping right into the housing market paying premium prices for homes? Not a chance. This market is going to correct unless the government starts giving out mind boggling amounts of money to people interested in buying homes as a giant handout to try to prop the system up just a little bit longer. I don't think they can do that, even though I believe they are crazy enough to try. A correction towards the utility price of homes would be very good in my opinion. Families need to be able to buy a home without both spouses working full time because that has huge implications on family size and even if people have kids. I think population collapse is a very bad thing and believe making it easier for people to have children would be a very wise thing if we want our country to flourish in the future. My great-grandparents agreed, my grandparents agreed, now I guess we'll see if the current crop of leaders is willing to agree and try to make it possible for the younger generation to flourish and have a family and a home.