group logoRyan Finlay
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Ryan Finlay

The Predictions Were Wrong, AI Will Disrupt Blue Collar Jobs Last

For the past 5-10 years, there have been a lot of predictions about how new technology and Artificial Intelligence would do away with blue collar jobs first. Those predictions were wrong, and it now looks like white collar jobs and even even some creative jobs will be the first to be disrupted. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI spoke about how wrong people’s predictions have been in a recent interview with Reid Hoffman. “I think it’s interesting that if you ask people 10 years ago about how AI was going to have an impact, with a lot of confidence from most people, you would’ve heard, first, it’s going to come for the blue collar jobs working in the factories, truck drivers, whatever. Then it will come for the low skill white collar jobs. Then the very high skill, really high IQ white collar jobs, like a programmer or whatever. And then very last of all and maybe never, it’s going to take the creative jobs. And it’s going exactly the other direction. There’s an interesting reminder in here generally about how hard predictions are, but more specifically about we’re not always very aware, maybe even ourselves, of what skills are hard and easy, what uses most of our brain and doesn’t or how difficult bodies are to control or make or whatever.” - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (Here is a link to the full conversation that Reid Hoffman had with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. https://youtu.be/WHoWGNQRXb0) AI has been in the news a lot lately after the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI. So what is ChatGPT? I asked ChatGPT that question. “ChatGPT is an AI-powered language model developed by OpenAI. It uses state-of-the-art deep learning techniques to generate human-like text based on the input it receives. With a massive amount of training data and advanced algorithms, ChatGPT can perform a wide range of language tasks such as answering questions, generating creative writing, translating text, and more. ChatGPT has been trained on a diverse range of internet text, allowing it to have a broad understanding of general knowledge and cultural references. This makes it a powerful tool for conversational AI applications and an ideal solution for businesses looking to automate customer service or generate human-like text content.” - ChatGPT Next I asked it for the top ten examples of types of things it can do. “Here are the top 10 examples of what ChatGPT can do: 1. Question Answering: ChatGPT can answer questions based on its training data. 2. Text generation: It can generate coherent text on a variety of topics, from news articles to fiction. 3. Conversation: ChatGPT can hold a conversation, maintaining context and understanding over multiple turns. 4. Translation: ChatGPT can translate text from one language to another, using its understanding of multiple languages. 5. Text completion: It can complete a partially written sentence or paragraph based on the context. 6. Text summarization: ChatGPT can summarize long text into shorter, more concise text. 7. Sentiment Analysis: ChatGPT can analyze and categorize text into positive, negative, and neutral sentiments. 8. Text classification: It can classify text into different categories, such as spam, news, or entertainment. 9. Named Entity Recognition: ChatGPT can identify named entities such as people, organizations, and locations in text. 10. Chatbot development: ChatGPT can be used as the basis for developing AI-powered chatbots, allowing businesses to automate customer service or generate human-like text content.” I’m sharing all this because it has significant implications for the young people today thinking about their careers as well as parents and teachers who are giving advice and educating these students. Below are some of my thoughts and advice I’m giving to my own kids. Physical trades/blue collar jobs - these are going to be in high demand for a long time to come and will be the last to be disrupted. There is already a big shortage of trade workers because of the universal push towards college that has existed for the past 2-3 decades. Now, the US is set to re-industrialize and the demand for trade workers should only increase in the next few decades. The more skill involved in the blue collar work, in general, the more job security there will be. White collar work with a physical component - Many healthcare jobs would fall into this category and I believe they are going to be pretty safe from significant disruption for quite some time to come. Doctors, dentists, nurses, physical therapists etc. White collar work - These jobs are going to have the biggest target on them. Low-skill white collar jobs will be the first impacted. AI in it’s current form is already more than capable of replacing a lot of really basic office type jobs. But high skill/knowledge jobs like programmers and lawyers are also going to have a target on them, especially because of how much money could be saved. In the future there probably won’t be very many low-skilled programmers or lawyers. Creative industries: arts, media, and entertainment, such as writers, musicians, actors, or photographers. These areas will undergo massive disruption. The skills are awesome to have, but it’s going to get exponentially more difficult to make a career out of them. So in summary: AI is going after jobs where people just use their brains. If a job uses brains and the body, it’s definitely more safe from disruption. At least for now. To try out ChatGPT for yourself for free, go to: https://chat.openai.com/ Here’s a few ideas to get you started. Tell it to write you a funny kids story about two random animals that takes place in a location of your choosing. Be as specific as you would like for things you would like included in the story. Ask it to summarize a book of the Bible in one paragraph. Ask it a very specific question about a plant on your property or how to do a complex task. Ask it to write a 5 paragraph essay on any animal you can think of. Tell it to write 7 marketing ideas for something you would like to sell or to come up with a list of 10 possible book titles for a book you would like to write about. (tell it the basic premise of the book)

My Dad passed away last night

My Dad passed away last night

(Post was from October 2, 2020) My Dad passed away last night. Our family was together. Much sadness, grieving, relief, and hope. We are going to miss our Dad tremendously. He was a big source of love, support, and joy in our lives. I still can’t believe that I’m writing these words, even knowing this was coming for years. My Dad was a big supporter of me and my siblings. He wanted us to succeed in every area of life and we could feel that. He was proud of us, even though we gave him every gray hair on his head. (at least us boys did) We always knew he was in our corner. We lost a tremendous advocate. My Dad was a kind man and a helper. He didn’t just help his family, but he really cared for his dental patients here in Roseburg, his friends, his church, and all those fortunate to know him. For example, I had a good friend who was ill and going back and forth from the hospital and a local long term care facility. Being that I lived so far away, I couldn’t be there in person to support my friend. So I remember asking Dad if he would be willing to visit my friend for me. Well, he ended up visiting him almost daily for months on end and the man quickly became my Dad’s friend as well. I’ll never forget that, his willingness and faithfulness to see our friend to the end of his journey. My Dad was a good friend. Several years ago I was living in Portland and Dad was freshly retired with lots of time on his hand. I was often out driving around town picking up and delivering appliances and would often call Dad and talk with him as I drove. It became part of our daily routine and we really bonded over those years. We both helped each other through some hard times. I remember getting ribbed about all those daily conversations with Dad, cause who talks with their Dad for an hour a day for hundreds of days on end? I don’t regret one of those conversations. As the Alzheimers started to progress, activities he’d enjoyed his entire life, he’d all of a sudden just lose interest in them. I remember when our phone conversations fell victim to the wretched disease. We had been talking only a few minutes and all of a sudden Dad just kind of cut the conversation short after just a few minutes and said he better get going. He did the same thing the next day and then slowly stopped wanting to talk on the phone altogether. At the time, I didn’t understand the changes were being caused by the Alzheimers. It was so hard these past years slowly saying goodbye. Dad loved Jesus and is with Him today not because my Dad was perfect, but because he put his faith and trust in a perfect God. My Dad’s two favorite songs were Amazing Grace and Ten Thousand Reasons. I have a video from a year and a half ago of him getting emotional as he sang these words at the end of the song. “And on that day when my strength is failing The end draws near and my time has come Still, my soul will sing Your praise unending Ten thousand years and then forevermore Forevermore” Forevermore Dad! Dad, thank you for everything, we miss you dearly and love you.

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Ryan Finlay

Our Broken Financial System

Our Broken Financial System

Growing up, I was always in wonder imagining how the ancient Egyptians got all their people to give of their time and resources to build the pyramids. Surely we would never be so stupid to allow our modern day rulers the power over us to do the same! But alas, the same is taking place today! We’ve given 12 unelected officials at the federal reserve the total power over monetary policy in the United States and it’s a policy with a foundation of theft. They debase our currency every year which is theft of our time and resources. The wild thing is people don’t even realize it’s happening. There is an incredible level of ignorance in how our monetary system works, and how corrupt it is. And so, most people don’t understand how destructive it is, and who is impacted the most, the poor. The wealthy are naturally incentivized to say nothing because they benefit the most from this broken system. Christians need to understand how broken it is and speak up on behalf of the poor. Read Lyn Alden’s book Broken Money. Lastly, the wicked in their pride, tend to boast of their great wicked deeds. As I was talking to the boys this morning, the illustration of the pyramids popped into my head. Then it occurred to me that a pyramid was put on some of our currency. The audacity! It also says in Latin “annuit coeptis” which means generally that he or Providence approves. No, God certainly does not approve of unequal weights and measures! Our money is built on a foundation of theft and it is entirely a broken foundation! The consequences and costs are far reaching, and you could spend a long time looking into them. Jimmy Song, a Christian brother wrote an entire book looking in to how Fiat currency ruins everything. Give it a read if you’re interested in understanding just how pernicious money printing, and our monetary debasement is. My encouragement to everyone, but especially Christians, is to understand how our financial system works and call out injustices when you see them.

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Ryan Finlay

Celebrating Our 20 Year Anniversary

Celebrating Our 20 Year Anniversary

Twenty years ago yesterday, I married my beloved bride Candice. It was one of my greatest decisions of my life. We've raised 6 children together and she's an incredible mother to our children. We've homeschooled them all with our oldest two graduating from high school this past year. We've moved 9 times in three different cities in Oregon and Hawaii. It's been an incredible 20 years and I'm deeply grateful to God for you Candice! About 20 years and 6 months ago I remember praying to the Lord one night that he would send me a wife. The very next day Candice and I hung out for the first time and we never stopped! Proverbs 31:10 (ESV): "An excellent wife who can find? She is far more precious than jewels." Amen!

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Ryan Finlay

Moses & Elijah Graduating From High School

Moses & Elijah Graduating From High School

Our son's Moses and Elijah are both graduating from high school this week. Candice and I homeschooled the boys all the way through. Moses started his journey of becoming a software engineer when he was 8, and has already started his career and is building a few software startups with me. Elijah developed a love for video production several years ago and has also already started his career in the field. Both boys plan on staying in Roseburg to live and work. Moses, Elijah, we are very proud of you both and are excited to see you launch into this next season of life! To all our friends, family, church community etc, thank you for investing in our boys. 🙏 (This post/video/website is hosted on our Tracker software platform that Moses and I have built over the past several years. Moses is the lead software developer of the project.)

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Ryan Finlay

The Importance of Starting Each Day Well

The Importance of Starting Each Day Well

For the past month or so, a portion of my lawn has been slowly turning brown and a few small patches even dying. I’ve been putting a lot of work into having a nice green lawn for the kids to enjoy over the summer so it’s been very frustrating to watch. I started watering the lawn a second time later in the day because it was acting like it wasn’t getting enough water, but that still wasn’t doing the trick. I fertilized it, put grub killer on it, and spent far too much time racking my brain as to why the grass hasn’t been flourishing. This morning, Elijah told me that when he went to adjust the automatic sprinkler last night he noticed that the sprinkler had been programmed to only turn on for 6 minutes in the morning, which was enough water for a portion of our lawn that gets lots of shade, but not the portion exposed to the sun most of the day. The extra water I was giving the lawn later in the day wasn’t enough to overcome for the lack of water early in the day before the grass would get blasted by the sun all day. It’s very important that the grass get enough water early in the day before the day’s heat. It’s such a good illustration for our often dried out souls. We need to spend time in the Bible every day, which is our living water as Jesus puts it, or our souls will start being impacted. It’s not even enough to just go to church on Sunday’s, just as as drinking water or eating food once a week isn’t enough. Also, I had delegated the sprinkler system programming to my son, but I had not double checked that it was doing what it was supposed to be doing, which is on me. The same goes for our souls. We often delegate the well-being of our souls to our pastors or churches, both of which are very important. But ultimately, we are responsible for taking care of our souls and we’ve been given God’s word and should spend time in it every day. Lastly, like many problems in life, things are often more simple than they seem. If we aren’t noticing the fruits of the spirit coming out of our lives, we probably aren’t getting enough water, or time in the Word. It’s just that simple.

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Ryan Finlay

The US is in a debt spiral. The federal budget deficit in 2023 could go over 2 trillion dollars and it's rapidly accelerating. There are basically two ways out for the US. Hard default on our debts or print money like crazy and buy our own debt, leading to significant inflation or worse. We almost certainly will go the path of printing. Sensing the gravity of the situation, other countries around the world are starting to distance themselves from the US dollar as it's on the path to debasement. Things to watch are oil and gas and other commodities around the world being traded in currencies other than the US dollar and the emergence of financial networks outside the control of the US. There are more announcements almost daily of developments in both these areas. Why would other countries distance themselves from the US dollar? If the US must print trillions and trillions of dollars in perpetuity to prevent default, then the US dollar is going to increasingly lose more and more value each year, punishing everyone who holds US dollars with less and less purchasing power. James Lavish explains the latest Congressional Budget Office forecast very well in the following post. I highly encourage people to educate themselves on these matters as there are significant implications for just about everyone. https://jameslavish.substack.com/p/the-latest-cbo-report-taking-the

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Ryan Finlay